Will the Real “Natural Trading Partner” Please Stand Up?
نویسنده
چکیده
Adherents of the “natural trading partner” hypothesis argue that forming a PTA is more likely to raise welfare if member countries already trade disproportionately with each other. Opponents of the hypothesis claim that the opposite is true: welfare is likely to be higher if member countries trade less with each other. This paper shows that neither analysis is correct and that the “natural trading partner” hypothesis can be rescued if it is redefined in terms of complementarity or substitutability in the trade relations of member countries rather than in terms of their volume of trade. * The author would like to thank Alan Winters and participants to the World Bank International Trade Seminar for their comments. This paper represents the author’s views and not necessarily those of the World Bank, its member governments or its affiliated institutions.
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تاریخ انتشار 1999